Q3 2026 Review
Shareholder round table, 21 October 2026 · Actuals to 30 September 2026, forecasts to June 2027 · Figures as of 20 October 2026
ADR 2026, Jan to Sep
€302
Q3 ADR €304 · 335 nights sold
2027 on the books
24 bookings
25% occupancy · €50k gross revenue
Snapshot 20 Oct, flat week on week
Snapshot 20 Oct, flat week on week
EBITDA, Jan to Sep
€31.0k
30% of revenue · €42.6k before loan repayments and tax
Cash, 30 Sep
€32.8k
Forecast €19.9k at 31 Dec · €8.5k at 30 Jun 2027
Executive summary
What we focused on in Q3
- Pricing: managed weekly. It filled the high season, which was underperforming at the start of the year.
- Bookings: August (92% occupancy) and September (92%) were great. October (52%) has been a bit soft versus previous years, and we are monitoring the end of the year.
- Marketing: same strategy, better quality images and good copy. When the church goes live, we will review how we do social media, with more budget.
Headline numbers
- Revenue: €52.2k in Q3, €104.4k year to date. Occupancy was 97% in July and 92% in August and September.
- Profit: EBITDA €19.0k in Q3 and €31.0k year to date (30% of revenue). Without loan repayments and property tax it would have been €42.6k.
- Cash flow: €32.8k at 30 September, up from €14.8k at 30 June. The forecast is €19.9k at 31 December and €8.5k at 30 June 2027.
ADR 2026 by month
Average daily rate, occupancy and nights sold, January to September 2026.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Jan to Sep | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADR, all units | €274 | €207 | €228 | €259 | €316 | €446 | €328 | €307 | €272 | €302 |
| Occupancy | 13% | 22% | 34% | 63% | 71% | 78% | 97% | 92% | 92% | |
| Nights sold | 8 | 13 | 18 | 35 | 42 | 47 | 60 | 57 | 55 | 335 |
P&L by month, September YTD
Revenue, gross margin, expenses and EBITDA, January to September 2026 actuals.
EBITDA year to date is €30,973. Expenses include €10,093 of loan repayments and €1,490 of property tax; without them EBITDA would have been €42,556.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €698 | €4,111 | €5,912 | €10,020 | €14,280 | €17,179 | €18,089 | €18,803 | €15,277 | €104,369 |
| Gross margin | €428 | €3,966 | €5,652 | €8,640 | €12,838 | €14,979 | €16,979 | €14,814 | €13,321 | €91,618 |
| Expenses | €1,535 | -€1,796 | €6,077 | €9,761 | €8,368 | €10,588 | €9,973 | €7,254 | €8,885 | €60,645 |
| EBITDA | -€1,107 | €5,763 | -€425 | -€1,122 | €4,470 | €4,391 | €7,006 | €7,560 | €4,436 | €30,973 |
February expenses are negative because of a €5.5k credit from the old bank account balance.
Cash flow by month
Closing cash balance each month: 2026 actuals January to September (solid), forecast October 2026 to June 2027 (dashed).
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan 27 | Feb 27 | Mar 27 | Apr 27 | May 27 | Jun 27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash in | €2,709 | €3,077 | €4,799 | €9,536 | €13,817 | €14,609 | €14,987 | €13,460 | €16,782 | €5,890 | €0 | €4,009 | €0 | €625 | €2,926 | €3,295 | €4,933 | €9,447 |
| Cash out | €99 | €3,646 | €10,435 | €6,501 | €7,284 | €11,376 | -€1,492 | €19,819 | €8,851 | €9,087 | €5,847 | €7,927 | €4,710 | €5,222 | €7,145 | €6,349 | €5,348 | €6,689 |
| Closing cash | €2,659 | €7,619 | €1,983 | €5,018 | €11,551 | €14,785 | €31,264 | €24,905 | €32,836 | €29,639 | €23,792 | €19,874 | €20,244 | €15,197 | €10,528 | €7,023 | €6,159 | €8,467 |
The July and August swings in cash out come from the temporary loan to the church: €11.8k came back in July and €12.2k went out in August.
12 week cash flow
Closing cash balance each week from 12 October to 28 December 2026, with cash in and cash out in the table.
| Week of | 12th Oct | 19th Oct | 26th Oct | 2nd Nov | 9th Nov | 16th Nov | 23rd Nov | 30th Nov | 7th Dec | 14th Dec | 21st Dec | 28th Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast |
| Cash in | €1,266 | €542 | €1,862 | €0 | €0 | €0 | €600 | €0 | €0 | €0 | €2,581 | €829 |
| Cash out | €1,109 | €1,690 | €2,030 | €4,846 | €0 | €370 | €970 | €3,276 | €2,800 | €800 | €800 | €2,580 |
| Closing cash | €30,980 | €29,832 | €29,664 | €24,818 | €24,818 | €24,448 | €24,078 | €20,802 | €18,002 | €17,202 | €18,982 | €17,231 |
Sources: Casa Bada Bookings analysis (2026 Analisi Mensile), 2026 Monthly Casa Bada rolling Cashflow + PL (PL 2026, Cashflow ActualForecast), Casa Bada 12 Week Rolling Cashflow. ADR = room revenue divided by nights sold. Expenses and EBITDA follow the P&L sheet, which counts loan repayments and property tax as costs. January 2027 closing cash is shown at €20,244, the February 2027 opening balance confirmed by Ale (the sheet shows €14,714). 2027 occupancy is a snapshot from Ale on 20 October. Prepared by TMG.